Industry Anaylst Michael Pachter has estimated that sales of Sony’s PlayStation 4 console will reach 120-130 million units in its lifespan, while Microsoft’s Xbox One is predicated to sell around 100-110 million units during its life. However Nintendo’s failing console, Wii U lags seriously behind with predictions of only 20 million units.
Speaking at DICE Europe last week, Pachter also revealed that he believes that this generation of consoles will not be bigger than the last. Although his figures show this generation only just falling short.
“The console installed base is as big as it’s ever going to get,” Pachter said. “[This] generation is not going to be bigger than the last generation. We’re going to be about the same.”
“The Wii U is going to sell 20 million units compared to 100 million for the Wii. The PlayStation 4 is going to sell 120 million or 130 million – that’s great. The Xbox One will sell 100 million to 110 million – that’s great. Add it all together and it’s 260 million units, maybe, and the last cycle was 270 million.”
During his speech, Pachter also went on to say that this will be the last console generation as we know it. The PS4 and Xbox One will be the last real console cycle according to him, and we think he has a point.
“This is the last real console cycle,” Pachter continued. “I don’t mean that Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo will go bankrupt and shut down – they will not. Each of them will make another console, some people will buy them, and the next console cycle will be to this console cycle what the 3DS is to the DS. The 3DS is selling about 15 million units a year, the DS had five consecutive years where it sold more than 26 million. So about half as big.
“So when I say that this console cycle is the last console cycle, the reason is that console games shouldn’t require a console. And I’m not talking about the cloud.”
